While we have been avoiding (so far) the destructive spike that was happening in other countries, our numbers are still increasing and most importantly, the rate is also increasing as follows:
It took us
51 days (14 Feb- 4 April) to get to 1000+ cases
8 days (5 April- 12 April) to get to 2000+ cases
6 days (13 April- 18 April) to get to 3000+ cases
While these numbers are not as bad as the rest of the world, these numbers are considered high because up until this point, the Ministry of health is not using wide testing and only tests those who are exposed to Covid- 19 cases and those who come forward with very suspicious symptoms.
The trend of seeing more doctors every day getting infected in medical institutes without detecting source, and the sporadic infected cases in different demographics all over Egypt, means that we have entered phase 3 of the pandemic, which in epidemiology language means that infection is no longer confined to exposed cases only. Phase 3 is widespread ongoing transmission
The WHO released a report two days ago expressing concerns about the fate of Africa and how it might be the coming center of the pandemic, this report estimated that if there were to be a spike in in Egypt, it would be around the time of June. This comes as no surprise, since this will be the time after all the festivities of Easter, Ramadan and Eid, and in all honesty we know that most people are not applying social distancing, and in many cases, the socialization moved from restaurants and bars to houses, and those violations are estimated to increased during the coming period, leading to new incubation periods and hence more infections around June.
This is why we urge you to stay home and stay safe, only leave the house when absolutely necessary and with great precautions. An important advice would be to start expecting global change and that there will be a new normal, no matter how people around us make you feel that things will be going back to usual, they won’t, this is based on numbers, research and history of all pandemics and how they changed the world, socially and Economically. This is not a period to be anxious about the future but to embrace the uncertainty as freedom to maybe create the lifestyle that you have always wanted and that is aligned with who you are not what you found yourself and everyone else doing, these observations are not necessarily big ones but as simple as daily lifestyle changes that connects you more with who you truly are as a human and what contribution to society you want to be a part of.
write your thoughts down and feel free to share with us, your doctors, it's one of our main philosophy of practicing medicine, and it is that we like to know our patients well and treat the human not the disease, and we always believe health starts on the inside.
Happy Easter and lots of love