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Phase 3 is officially here and Peak is pretty soon
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Dear Members,

This post might sound pessimistic but i urge you to look at it from a realistic stand point. If you go back to all our previous posts, you will find that our expectations are Unfortunately manifesting. Last week, we said we started stage 3 of the pandemic despite lack of an official government statement on it.

This is officially the case, and a serious statement from the Ministry of Health was issued yesterday declaring that no cases will be treated in the isolation hospitals except those who are critical and in need of ventilation and O2 support. While this should have been the strategy from day one to save resources, human and medical, this statement reflects a very bad situation, it reflects full or near full occupancy of isolation hospitals. It reflects a major concern regarding the shooting up in the number of new cases, which occurred in no time. The opening of malls and decrease of curfew hour in one week lead to a very obvious increase in new cases and death rate and we will still see more to come.

This week the vice dean of Faculty of Medicine didn’t make it, and passed from Covid 19 infection, you can of course imagine the renowned names in medicine volunteering to treat him and oversee his progress, offering all types of conventional and compassionate treatment, all available ventilatory support , even ECMO was considered and despite full medical attention, best names, best available medical and supportive treatment, he still he didn’t make it. Young people are also getting affected, despite false sense of safety in younger age groups, this group in particular is showing unusual presentations such as strokes and quick desaturation in O2 levels. Children are also getting infected, despite saying they are off the hook. My point is, there is very little we know about this virus and it is changing robustly everyday, so please do not take any information and stick it, the data release and credible info is changing swiftly because we still do not know enough and we do not know for sure.

Up until today 90 doctors have been infected and 5 died, and we are not in the peak yet, the medical establishment is already getting hit and unfortunately many people are going about their lives normally, going to malls, doing Iftar invitations, no one is wearing a mask and abiding by social distancing, it is very very sad and very ominous.

The decision that most cases will be treated at home might come as a relief to a lot of people who were afraid to get tested in order to avoid the obligatory isolation applied by the government before, of course getting escorted out of your house with an ambulance and police like a criminal is a terrible thing but the other alternative implemented now is very dangerous. Why? Egypt has a high number of poor populations and slums, and we all know that in those areas, most houses have 10 or more people living in them, sometimes even 8 people in one room. The nightmare that will occur if there is one positive case in such a condensed living situation is beyond comprehension, this will take out entire neighborhoods not just individuals. And these are people we interact with everyday, from delivery guys, grocery store workers, cleaners, drivers…etc, so they are in our daily world

We are heading to the peak over the coming weeks, with the graphs we see now, there will be a lot of cases and (i hope not) more deaths.

Wanna put some scary numbers in perspective?

April 1

number of new cases was 69 and total cases was 779

May 1

Number of new cases is 358 and total cases 5895!!!

I realize and understand that everyone is feeling sick of this whole situation but i advice as i always do to train your minds on a new normal, this is a disease that will stay with us for sometime and the government's role is really limited right now, it is just waiting for impact. your own health and your family’s health is your full responsibility right now, so please take this seriously not pessimistically. I am sorry if all this sounds grim but we are speaking science and its my job to guide you through your health and keep you informed and updated.

Stay Home and Stay Safe

Dr. Elnazer

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